Obama Approval Index Month-by-Month: August 2009

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

When you track the President’s Job Approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports has compiled the numbers on a full-month basis and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Looking back, after the initial euphoria of inauguration day, the President’s ratings slipped a bit but remained steady and positive from February thru May. In June, the numbers began to move down a bit, still remained generally positive. July and August were less positive months for the President.

Overall, the number who Strongly Approve has fallen from 43% in January to 30% in August. During that same time frame, the number who Strongly Disapprove has grown from 20% to 39%. Those numbers translate to a Presidential Approval Index that has declined from +23 in January to -9 in August.

Also in August, the President’s total approval fell below 50% for the first time.

(more below)

While opposition to the President’s proposed health care reform is partly responsible for the declining approval ratings, the numbers reflect a broader level of frustration. Last fall, during the Bush Administration, voters overwhelmingly opposed the bailout plans for banks but the bailout went ahead. Earlier this year, voters overwhelmingly opposed the federal takeover of General Motors and Chrysler, but they went ahead as well. Two-thirds of American voters (64%) support a law requiring the federal government to sell its interest in GM within one year.

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Realistically, no one can tell what will happen next. In the short-term, resolution of the health care legislation may have a significant impact on the President’s ratings. Looking further ahead, the economy and federal deficit numbers are likely to set the tone heading into the mid-term elections. Forty percent (40%) of voters see reducing the deficit as the top priority while 21% say health care is number one.

2009	Strongly Approve	Strongly Disapprove	Approval Index	Total Approve	Total Disapprove
Jan	43	20	23	62	34
Feb	39	25	14	59	39
Mar	37	30	7	57	42
Apr	35	31	4	55	44
May	35	29	6	57	42
Jun	34	32	2	54	45
Jul	30	37	-7	50	49
Aug	30	39	-9	49	50
Sep	31	39	-8	49	51
Oct	29	39	-10	48	51
Nov	28	40	-12	48	52
Dec	26	41	-15	46	53
2010
Jan	27	41	-14	47	52

Currently, Republicans have a modest lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. But, the good news for Democrats is that they have fourteen months to do some damage control before voters render a judgment.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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